Elections approaching and the Euro-2012 can significantly reduce the cost of strengthening the hryvnia and dollar and euro.
First time in a long time the National Bank constantly replenishes its currency reserves, write "Izvestiya in Ukraine."
Gold and currency reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine in April increased by $ 600 million and reached almost $ 32 billion while Bank sold less currency and more buy - in April he joined the reserves by $ 304 million special attention to Bank of pay that that Ukrainian stopped buying dollars in anticipation of an imminent devaluation of the hryvnia. Net purchases of dollars was only $ 209 million - the lowest in the last two years. Peak currency fell excitement in September last year. Then people just for one month bought more than $ 2 billion, and total for 2011 with the financial system migrated under mattresses Ukrainian nearly $ 13.4 billion Economic experts seriously recognize that buying a currency people could not only destroy the reserves, but and undermine the stability of the currency.
Director of Economic Analysis and Forecasting Bank of Alexander Patrick believes that the shortage of currency, we will: "In particular, oil prices have fallen compared with peaks in March to 7.5%. At the same time steel prices (remember, this is one of the key exports of the country) moderate increase, and this growth since the beginning of the year was 5.4%. "Economic growth in the euro area and Russia, according to Patrick, will not only help to increase exports, but also the flow of currency.
In addition, experts advise not to forget more about two important factors. First, the upcoming parliamentary elections. In the propaganda campaign of the party and candidates, majority electees back into the country from abroad, according to conservative estimates, $ 1,8-2,5 billion Secondly, it is expected a significant flow of tourists at the time of Championship football. According to various estimates, the country will come about half a billion dollars.
Lanovyi, former economy minister, the president of the Center for Market Reform believes that a shaft of foreign money may even lead to a decline in the dollar. "If a month will flow in, say, one billion dollars of foreign currency, which will bring tourists and the team, they will create oversupply in the domestic dollar market, and it will depreciate. The dollar can go up to the mark 6.7 UAH ", - predicts expert.
In turn, Oleg Ivanets, an analyst at investment company "Art Capital", believes that the currency market do not feel any radical warps and by the end, the situation may worsen. "The dollar stand at 8 USD - confident expert. - Despite a stable situation in real time, in the third and fourth quarters, we expect a significant reduction of reserves, especially if Ukraine does not restore the program to support the IMF. In addition, the expected growth in imports by 3%, leading to a fall in reserves to the critical point (three months of import financing) in the fourth quarter of this year. " Thus, the deficit currencies could again create risks for the stability of the hryvnia.
Such expectation is confirmed by experts in the National Bank. In a research note on the status of reserves and their growth forecasts admit that next year their volume may be reduced to a half months of import financing - is not feeding the International Monetary Fund. If the money will fund, the state reserves will be less dire, and they remain approximately at current levels, which will continue to maintain a stable national currency.
Gold and currency reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine in April increased by $ 600 million and reached almost $ 32 billion while Bank sold less currency and more buy - in April he joined the reserves by $ 304 million special attention to Bank of pay that that Ukrainian stopped buying dollars in anticipation of an imminent devaluation of the hryvnia. Net purchases of dollars was only $ 209 million - the lowest in the last two years. Peak currency fell excitement in September last year. Then people just for one month bought more than $ 2 billion, and total for 2011 with the financial system migrated under mattresses Ukrainian nearly $ 13.4 billion Economic experts seriously recognize that buying a currency people could not only destroy the reserves, but and undermine the stability of the currency.
Director of Economic Analysis and Forecasting Bank of Alexander Patrick believes that the shortage of currency, we will: "In particular, oil prices have fallen compared with peaks in March to 7.5%. At the same time steel prices (remember, this is one of the key exports of the country) moderate increase, and this growth since the beginning of the year was 5.4%. "Economic growth in the euro area and Russia, according to Patrick, will not only help to increase exports, but also the flow of currency.
In addition, experts advise not to forget more about two important factors. First, the upcoming parliamentary elections. In the propaganda campaign of the party and candidates, majority electees back into the country from abroad, according to conservative estimates, $ 1,8-2,5 billion Secondly, it is expected a significant flow of tourists at the time of Championship football. According to various estimates, the country will come about half a billion dollars.
Lanovyi, former economy minister, the president of the Center for Market Reform believes that a shaft of foreign money may even lead to a decline in the dollar. "If a month will flow in, say, one billion dollars of foreign currency, which will bring tourists and the team, they will create oversupply in the domestic dollar market, and it will depreciate. The dollar can go up to the mark 6.7 UAH ", - predicts expert.
In turn, Oleg Ivanets, an analyst at investment company "Art Capital", believes that the currency market do not feel any radical warps and by the end, the situation may worsen. "The dollar stand at 8 USD - confident expert. - Despite a stable situation in real time, in the third and fourth quarters, we expect a significant reduction of reserves, especially if Ukraine does not restore the program to support the IMF. In addition, the expected growth in imports by 3%, leading to a fall in reserves to the critical point (three months of import financing) in the fourth quarter of this year. " Thus, the deficit currencies could again create risks for the stability of the hryvnia.
Such expectation is confirmed by experts in the National Bank. In a research note on the status of reserves and their growth forecasts admit that next year their volume may be reduced to a half months of import financing - is not feeding the International Monetary Fund. If the money will fund, the state reserves will be less dire, and they remain approximately at current levels, which will continue to maintain a stable national currency.
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