International organizations continue to worsen prognosis prospects of Ukrainian economy. Following the IMF is less optimistic assessment Exploded international rating agency Fitch. Analysts say the agency, Ukraine's real GDP in 2012 will be only 1.6%
In mid-April, the IMF again lowered the growth forecast for gross domestic product of Ukraine - this time from 4.8% to 3% in 2012 a month is even more pessimistic assessment gives agency Fitch - by his calculations, Ukraine's GDP will grow by only 1 6%. "Future growth prospects are limited expected downturn in the economy" - agency reported on Friday. In 2013, however, Fitch expects more dynamic growth - by 4.2%.
As Ukrainian experts believe, worsening forecasts for the Ukrainian economy is quite natural. "Deteriorating weather agency Fitch reflects current trends in the domestic economy: Real GDP growth in the I quarter slowed to 1.8% g / g (from 4.7% in the IV quarter of 2011) against the backdrop of worsening external conditions" - said the chief economist of the investment firm Dragon Capital Elena Belana.
Agrees with this and Concorde Capital analyst Linda Vitali Vavryshchuk. "I think the main reason for revision was the publication of data for the first quarter of 2012 - they were much lower than the expectations of government and market participants" - he says. In particular, the review could be due to the latest data on industrial production. Key export-oriented sectors (metallurgy, mechanical engineering) showed a drop in output in March.
According to Elena Belan in general economic activity in the first quarter, supported by industry, focused on domestic demand. These are very high rates of retail turnover, which, given the election "charity" must be supported in the near future. Recently approved the budget increase in social spending will be a significant driver of consumer demand.
Nevertheless, domestic demand is still not enough to keep the pace of economic growth, more export-oriented (In 2011, recall, Ukraine's real GDP was 5.2%).
"Our latest forecast for GDP growth in Ukraine was at 3%, but we intend to see it, though, perhaps, the correction is not as pessimistic as in Fitch», - says the analyst of the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) Alexander Zholud .
According to Mr. Vavryshchuk, 1.6% from Fitch - likely scenario. Anyway, Ukrainian analysts forecasts close to that assessment. "We forecast GDP growth this year at 2.2%, but decrease the probability of this forecast increase," - said Elena Belan.
Moreover, she adds, without improvement in external demand Ukrainian economy will be very difficult to compensate for the likely deterioration of the results of the agricultural sector (compared to last year yield).
Apparently, it's time to do revision and came to the Cabinet. Recall that the government first came to this year with two forecasts - GDP growth at 3.9% (pessimistic) and 5% (optimistic). Given the observed deterioration in business environment and political repression that stirred the European Union, can be expected unless economic sanctions against Ukraine, but not the growth of business activity and investment in the country. In the Fitch restore growth to 4.2% expected only in 2013
In mid-April, the IMF again lowered the growth forecast for gross domestic product of Ukraine - this time from 4.8% to 3% in 2012 a month is even more pessimistic assessment gives agency Fitch - by his calculations, Ukraine's GDP will grow by only 1 6%. "Future growth prospects are limited expected downturn in the economy" - agency reported on Friday. In 2013, however, Fitch expects more dynamic growth - by 4.2%.
As Ukrainian experts believe, worsening forecasts for the Ukrainian economy is quite natural. "Deteriorating weather agency Fitch reflects current trends in the domestic economy: Real GDP growth in the I quarter slowed to 1.8% g / g (from 4.7% in the IV quarter of 2011) against the backdrop of worsening external conditions" - said the chief economist of the investment firm Dragon Capital Elena Belana.
Agrees with this and Concorde Capital analyst Linda Vitali Vavryshchuk. "I think the main reason for revision was the publication of data for the first quarter of 2012 - they were much lower than the expectations of government and market participants" - he says. In particular, the review could be due to the latest data on industrial production. Key export-oriented sectors (metallurgy, mechanical engineering) showed a drop in output in March.
According to Elena Belan in general economic activity in the first quarter, supported by industry, focused on domestic demand. These are very high rates of retail turnover, which, given the election "charity" must be supported in the near future. Recently approved the budget increase in social spending will be a significant driver of consumer demand.
Nevertheless, domestic demand is still not enough to keep the pace of economic growth, more export-oriented (In 2011, recall, Ukraine's real GDP was 5.2%).
"Our latest forecast for GDP growth in Ukraine was at 3%, but we intend to see it, though, perhaps, the correction is not as pessimistic as in Fitch», - says the analyst of the International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) Alexander Zholud .
According to Mr. Vavryshchuk, 1.6% from Fitch - likely scenario. Anyway, Ukrainian analysts forecasts close to that assessment. "We forecast GDP growth this year at 2.2%, but decrease the probability of this forecast increase," - said Elena Belan.
Moreover, she adds, without improvement in external demand Ukrainian economy will be very difficult to compensate for the likely deterioration of the results of the agricultural sector (compared to last year yield).
Apparently, it's time to do revision and came to the Cabinet. Recall that the government first came to this year with two forecasts - GDP growth at 3.9% (pessimistic) and 5% (optimistic). Given the observed deterioration in business environment and political repression that stirred the European Union, can be expected unless economic sanctions against Ukraine, but not the growth of business activity and investment in the country. In the Fitch restore growth to 4.2% expected only in 2013
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